It’s been widely noted that the next target of the right is likely to be gay marriage. I agree.
But I also think that while Republican voters may care about some policies like abortion or gay marriage, Republican politicians care only about power. And this is precisely why I think the right-wing media machine will try to turn Obergefell into the next Roe v. Wade.
To understand Republicans, I would argue, you need to realize that asking what they are for? is pointless; the only question that matters is who are they against? Who, in other words, are the publicly-promoted enemies around which the party is centered? Who are the villains they use to rally their voters?
Over the years, those villains have changed a bit:
Reagan: The Soviet Union, Black people (“welfare queens”), government, and Roe vs. Wade
Bush I: Saddam Hussein, taxes, and Roe vs. Wade.
Bush II: Saddam Hussein, Muslims, gays, and Roe vs. Wade
Trump: Immigrants, China, and Roe vs. Wade
You could add to each list, of course, and inject a bit of nuance, but you get the idea. And you get that throughout it all, opposition to Roe has been a constant.
Well, if Politico is to be believed, Republicans are the dog that has finally caught the car as far as abortion is concerned. For ages overturning Roe has been the key motivation for the segment of the Republican base more concerned with domestic virtue than international security. Opposition to abortion has been the single foundation of the right’s self-perceived moral superiority, and by far the biggest issue currently linking rich white Southern Evangelicals with the poor Hispanic Florida Catholics. More than anything else, it has allowed the religious right to see themselves as being on the side of the angels even as they ignore each of the Beatitudes in turn. Overturning Roe has been the thing that inspired protests and posters and donations and, most of all, voting.
So what happens when a party motivated only by villains loses its key domestic enemy?
Well, first—to be clear—there will certainly be a shifting of the goalposts. With Roe gone, attention will turn to a national ban on abortion. Or more likely, a series of national bans, each one more draconian than the last, and all offering the states the option to be still more extreme. But this won’t have the same impact, as it doesn’t have the unifying singularity of “Roe,” which gives a name to the enemy.
So how will the right continue to motivate those followers who see themselves as religious and need to convince themselves that this religion demands nothing more than voting Republican?
The sad and obvious answer is that they will try to overturn the gay marriage.
Of course, opposition to gay marriage is nothing new on the right. For some time now right-wing Christians have effectively reduced their religion to three commandments: overturn Roe, hate gays, and vote Republican. (With the last one essentially a shorthand for the first two.) But until Obergefell, opposing gay rights was too abstract to win voters; it’s hard to rally people in support of something they already have.
So now, when Roe v. Wade is officially overturned, I fully expect Fox News and the other Republican media affiliates to try to make Obergefell into the new Roe. I expect protests and vigils and heartfelt testimony from megachurch pulpits. And I absolutely expect every single elected Republican to wholeheartedly endorse the effort, because they will see that doing so might enable them to hold on to power.
Will this work?
I suspect not. I hope not. And I can think of at least three reasons why it might fail. First, gay marriage is hugely popular, and getting more popular all the time. Second, gay people are much more part of mainstream media than abortion ever was. For all the remaining prejudice, gays show up in television and movies far more often than does someone getting an abortion. This may seem minor, but it is really the foundation of how a whole generation defines “normal.” And finally, “Obergefell” is simply a hard name to say or remember. With villains, you really need an easy slogan.
That being said, Roe is (was?) also very popular, so the Supreme Court has made it very clear that popularity isn’t a deterrent. The Court has also made its disdain for Obergefell quite clear, as evidenced in the leaked Alito opinion. And the Court has amply demonstrated in a number of cases a willingness to go through tortuous legal contortions to justify support for whatever Republicans currently want. Any notion that they are “above politics” can now be rightfully laughed off.
Furthermore, the Republican Party has been transparent in its prejudice of late, attacking trans children and toeing the Q-line by linking the entire LGBTQ community to pedophilia at every turn.
So don’t think anyone is safe. Republicans have mastered the art of making the powerful majority feel threatened by the marginalized minority, and they’re absolutely willing to sacrifice any number of LGBTQ kids on the altar of their power.
Rhetoric & Running 